Mike Zabek

Federal Reserve Board
Labor, macro, and urban/regional economics
Federal Reserve Board
Mailstop I-30

Working papers

(With Patrick Coate and Pawel Krolikowski)

The earnings of young adults who live in the same neighborhoods as their parents recover faster after a job displacement than those who live farther away. The earnings of these workers recover in around six years while workers living farther away suffer permanent declines. Workers with children of their own drive these divergent earnings outcomes. Different job search durations, differences in mobility after job displacements, housing transfers, and ex-ante differences between workers are unlikely explanations. Parental employment networks could contribute to our findings, though we find little evidence that adult children find work in their parents' industries.

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Cleveland Fed Working Paper

Non-technical summaries: 2018 Economic Commentary, 2017 Economic Commentary

Press (selected): Wall Street Journal, The Atlantic, Time, Business Insider, MarketWatch

Formerly: Family Ties and Worker Displacement

People who live in declining areas are more likely to have been born nearby, which implies that they have idiosyncratic ties to where they live. Labor demand shocks to places where people have higher levels of these local ties, proxied by their birth places, lead to less migration and larger movements into and out of the labor market. A model of spatial equilibrium that includes a distribution of workers' preferences for living in their birth places matches these facts and suggests further implications. Declines in local productivity lead to lower migration elasticities and larger declines in real wages after further declines in productivity. Population can take generations to adjust, since ties can only be reallocated slowly. Across a wide class of models, lower migration elasticities make subsidies to local areas more efficient, since they change fewer people's locations. Local subsidies are more efficient in declining areas, where they are the most common.

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SocArXiv version

(With Aditya Aladangady and David Albouy)

Inequality in U.S. housing prices and rents both declined in the mid-20th century, even as home-ownership rates rose. Subsequently, housing-price inequality has risen to pre-War levels, while rent inequality has risen less. Combining both measures, we see inequality in housing consumption equivalents mirroring patterns in income across both space and time, according to an income elasticity of housing demand just below one. These patterns occur mainly within cities, and are not explained by observed changes in dwelling characteristics or locations. Instead, recent increases in housing inequality are driven most by changes in the relative value of locations, seen especially through land.

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NBER Working Paper

Press (selected): Washington Post, Atlantic: City Lab